Global Climate Policy after Copenhagen
This text presents, through an FAW/n analysis, a perspective on the future trajectory of international climate negotiations in the wake of the Copenhagen outcome. A pivotal element for a realistic outlook is the so-called “Copenhagen Miracle,” which has largely escaped public attention: major emerging economies, notably China and India, voluntarily committed to curb their future emissions growth—either in absolute terms or relative to GDP expansion. In doing so, these countries forwent substantial financial claims they might have asserted under the principles of climate justice. This gesture created an opportunity for the international community to establish a viable climate regime by the end of 2012. The present text highlights, among other aspects, the following key components:
Framework for a global climate agreement (15 paragraphs)
Identification of the central role of a global reforestation program
Costs and financing of an ambitious global forest regime
Bonus system for emerging economies
Comprehensive cap-and-trade system between countries
Climate neutrality options for organizations, companies, and individuals
Inclusion of international shipping and aviation
Linking the climate regime with the World Trade Organization (WTO)
Design of WTO-compatible border adjustment mechanisms
Notes on enforceability and compliance
Capitalization of remaining emission growth rights
Estimation of capitalization costs (USD 100–125 billion)
Addressing the WBGU budget constraint through 2050
Integration into the vision of a “double Factor 10”
Vision for Rio+20
Guidance for upcoming climate negotiations
In the upcoming negotiations, it will be crucial to focus on these essential questions and levers. Doing so may make it possible to reduce global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use to below 13 billion tons per year by 2050, while also adhering to the more critical WBGU budget constraint of a cumulative maximum of 750 billion tons of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use between 2010 and 2050. This will require, in particular, the use of the one-time potential offered by a forceful global reforestation program, implemented in a manner that promotes globally sustainable growth and aligns with the vision of a “double Factor 10” and the perspective of Rio+20.
Download: [Global Climate Policy after Copenhagen (Summary)]
Download: [Global Climate Policy after Copenhagen]
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